Basil Halperin

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AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years
Link: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8c7LycgtkypkgYjZx/agi-and-the-emh-markets-are-not-expecting-aligned-or Link 2…
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Monetary policy in 2050: evidence from Metaculus
Link: https://basilhalperin.com/essays/metaculus-monetary-policy.html
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Basil Halperin
2
Newcomb’s problem is just a standard time consistency problem
https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/newcomb.html Twitter summary:
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Basil Halperin
Recessions are always and everywhere caused by monetary policy
https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/recessions-are-always-everywhere-caused-by-monetary-policy.html Twitter summary:
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School and teen suicide
https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/school-and-teen-suicide.html TLDR: Suicide rates for US teenagers are substantially higher during the school year…
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Basil Halperin
New essay: It was a mistake to switch to sticky price models from sticky wage models
https://basilhalperin.com/essays/sticky-prices-vs-sticky-wages.html TLDR: Intuitively, wage stickiness seems more important than price stickiness The…
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Basil Halperin
New essay: What kind of ‘growth’ slowdowns should we care about?
https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/why-percentage-growth.html TLDR: “GDP percentage growth is slowing down” emphatically does not mean that “the rate…
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Basil Halperin
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