Archive - Basil Halperin

How much of Chinese growth is TFP growth vs. merely Solow catch-up growth?

1. TFP growth was fast + was an important part of the miraculous decades of growth, which rejects crude Solow-ism; 2. TFP growth has slowed down since…

Jul 26, 2024 •

The Solow Model is overrated (for explaining catch-up growth)

Do poor countries *really* grow fast because they’re just accumulating capital (building more machines, etc), a la Solow? Isn’t that kind of…

Jul 26, 2024 •

Miscellaneous things I learned in [econ] grad school

Originally posted as a Twitter thread.

Jul 13, 2024 •

March 2023

AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years

Link: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8c7LycgtkypkgYjZx/agi-and-the-emh-markets-are-not-expecting-aligned-or

Mar 25, 2023 •

April 2022

Monetary policy in 2050: evidence from Metaculus

Link: https://basilhalperin.com/essays/metaculus-monetary-policy.html

Apr 26, 2022 •

March 2022

Newcomb’s problem is just a standard time consistency problem

https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/newcomb.html

Mar 31, 2022 •

October 2021

Recessions are always and everywhere caused by monetary policy

https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/recessions-are-always-everywhere-caused-by-monetary-policy.html

Oct 28, 2021 •

August 2021

School and teen suicide

https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/school-and-teen-suicide.html

Aug 11, 2021 •

June 2021

New essay: It was a mistake to switch to sticky price models from sticky wage models

https://basilhalperin.com/essays/sticky-prices-vs-sticky-wages.html

Jun 16, 2021 •

December 2020

New essay: What kind of ‘growth’ slowdowns should we care about?

https://www.basilhalperin.com/essays/why-percentage-growth.html

Dec 16, 2020 •

November 2020

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Nov 10, 2020 •

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